A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
