Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
